This week Bury was placed in Tier 2 of the Government’s new local Covid alert system in response to an increase in new coronavirus cases throughout the country and the North West in particular.
To judge whether this step was necessary requires politicians to take a view on the data provided by clinicians and public health experts. There has been a significant increase in the number of new Covid 19 cases with 91 recorded in the week ending the 3rd September to 652 for the week ending 8th October. This increase is obviously concerning but to understand the public health consequences we can’t simply rely on numbers but must take a rounded view based on health, social and economic factors. Every politician is committed to protecting the most vulnerable in our communities but the pandemic is having a huge impact on business, jobs, mental health and our relationships with family and friends.
We know the current infection spike is being driven by younger people and this is hardly surprising with students returning to universities, but we know this cohort is highly unlikely to suffer any long term serious health impacts as a result of contracting the virus. The same applies to our schools where we have seen our children being asked to isolate due to positive cases being recorded, but again the evidence provided to me confirms thankfully that children are unlikely to suffer any long term health impacts due to Covid. Therefore the increase in new cases among the young is clearly not to be welcomed but in the vast number of cases is only significant in their potential to infect those who are more vulnerable to the virus.
As of the 8th October, there were 25 people confirmed Covid patients occupying a bed at Fairfield and 46 at North Manchester Hospital. However and very thankfully there were only 8 of those in ITU beds. I have not been provided with the ages or potential underlying health conditions of these patients but clearly, the majority would not appear to be the more severe cases and perhaps are from a younger demographic to those most at risk. We need this information to allow politicians to make informed public health choices.
The most up to date data I have received on Covid-19 excess deaths also raises questions. We have sadly seen a number of deaths in recent weeks, however, between the 12th June and 25th September the excess mortality in Bury, being the deaths per week minus the average number of deaths for 2015-2019 shows 26 fewer deaths than the norm for the previous 5 years and over the entirety of this year we see an excess mortality figure of 96. We know that many of those who passed away over the pandemic period wherein the vulnerable categories and I have not been provided with any information to suggest a high mortality rate in those with no underlying health conditions.
I am concerned at the impact restrictions are having on mental health, non-covid related medical and clinical services together with local businesses. We can not prioritise Covid to the extent that residents are not receiving necessary appointments and medication for cancer and other serious conditions as we risk the health consequences in these areas being more severe than those which coronavirus have provided. The Government’s scientific advisers are advising that hospitality venues should at the very least have onerous restrictions placed upon them but this appears to ignore the evidence of negligible transmission rates recorded nationally from hospitality venues and in Bury, we have not had a single Covid 19 outbreak recorded from a pub in Bury, Ramsbottom or Tottington during the period of the pandemic.
We all must abide by current guidance to reduce new cases numbers but should recognise that individual citizens should also accept responsibility for their own health. If the country is provided with the accurate data as to the risk posed by Covid 19, especially to vulnerable cohorts the individuals should have the responsibility to decide whether they wish to meet family members or take other actions which the state currently dictates they can not do. We have a responsibility as a community to abide by the rules to protect each other but I believe there has to be an incredibly good reason to take away the freedom to act in a way which does not harm someone else but allows all of us the opportunity to stay in direct contact with our loved ones.
We do not have a guarantee of a vaccine in the short term, we need as a society to find a way to live with Covid 19 without closing our economy or creating barriers to those relationships and friendships that make life worth living.
You can see what these restrictions mean for you on the Government's website here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-covid-alert-level-high
Current Data:
Ward Cases
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Excess Deaths:
